Preview: Rays at Braves, Finale

Photo courtesy of The Athletic

The Braves look to start 2020 2-0 at home & split their four game series with the Tampa Bay Rays at an even 2 games apiece.

Max Fried will take the bump for the hometown Bravos. After one start in 2020 he has a no decision and a 3.60 Earned Run Average. Fried’s first start was Atlanta’s first win of the season, coming this past Friday against the Mets in a 5-3 game after 10 innings. In 2019, Fried ranked in the 92nd percentile in Barrel Percentage & in the 91st percentile in Curve Spin. On the flip side, when batters made contact, it was usually solid; ranking in the 33rd percentile in Exit Velocity and the 27th percentile in Hard Hit Percentage.

Those advanced analytics didn’t exactly translate over to his 2019 record, in which he posted a solid 17-6 campaign with a 4.02 ERA.

The key for Fried today will be to keep runners off the basepath. In 2019 he posted a 1.17 ERA with no runners on base. His ERA jumped to 12.23 with runners in scoring position, 57.38 with two runners in scoring position, & a 20.25 ERA with the bases loaded.

Squaring off against Fried for the Rays will be Ryan Yarbrough. Yarbrough posted an 11-6 record in 2019 with a 4.13 ERA. His 2019 season was a clinic on keeping batters from squaring up his offerings; ranking in the 99th percentile in both Exit Velocity & Hard Hit Percentage. His biggest weakness however is avoiding contact, ranking in the 25th percentile in Whiff Percentage in 2019. Like Fried, he’s underwhelming with ducks on the pond; posting a 20.57 ERA with runners in scoring position & a 47.25 ERA with the bases loaded. His best splits come on the road & at night, with records of 9-3 on the road and 6-1 at night in 2019.

Now the lineups:

Tampa Bay

1. Yandy Díaz 3B

2. José Martínez DH

3. Brandon Lowe LF

4. Hunter Renfroe RF

5. Willy Adames SS

6. Mike Brosseau 1B

7. Joey Wendle 2B

8. Manuel Margot CF

9. Mike Zunino C

Atlanta

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. CF

2. Ozzie Albies 2B

3. Freddie Freeman 1B

4. Marcell Ozuna DH

5. Adam Duvall RF

6. Dansby Swanson SS

7. Johan Camargo 3B

8. Austin Riley LF

9. Tyler Flowers C

Tonight’s game is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. EST.

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